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Advantage play All Gambling Games Are Odds Vs Payout

#1
No matter what your favorite game is, all gambling games are essentially odds vs payout. Forget about what determines whether you win or lose, and look at gambling from a mathematical perspective alone. Let's compare roulette and sports betting. On a European roulette wheel, there are 37 pockets and the payout for a single number win is 35-1. In this case, the odds of winning (assuming the wheel is random) are 1 in 37. But for a win, you are paid 35 chips (plus your original bet). This is easy to understand even for amateurs.

Now say you bet on a sports team to win, and they were a long-shot at 15-1. Most sports gamblers would call this the "odds", but it's not. The 15-1 is the payout. So what are the odds then? Nobody really knows. Bookies usually change the payouts depending on what gamblers bet, so the bookie will never lose. The bookie couldn't care less who wins or loses. The odds in this example are simply the chance of a particular team winning. One gambler might thing the "long-shot team" has a 1 in 10 chance of winning. Another gambler might think there's a 1 in 20 chance. And yet another gambler might see that the "long-shot" team had lost it's previous few games because of critical missing injured players, that will return for the next game. And this gambler may estimate the long-shot has a realistic 1 in 5 chance of winning its next game. They will then recognize the large difference between the odds of 1 in 5, and the payout of 15 to 1.

In sports betting, this is a "value bet". But I'm just using it as an example to illustrate the difference between odds and payout.

My favorite game is by far roulette. I prefer it because I find it by far the most profitable casino game (in the right conditions). Many people might disagree with me, but remember I said "in the right conditions". Although I wont get into that in this post. Even if it wasn't necessarily the most profitable casino game, I would likely still prefer it. This is because my motivations are not solely profit. In fact if I only aimed to profit, I probably wouldn't focus on advantage play because there are easier ways to make money. Sure you can earn large sums very quickly in the right conditions, but it's still work.

But let's assume your intention is solely profit. In such a case, you need to put ego, fun and personal preference aside. Then focus on which games will give you the highest payout with the best odds. Or more specifically, you need the biggest discrepancy between odds and payouts. Put another way, you're looking for the "best value bet".

So what's the best value bet?

What's the best casino game to play?

The reality is it depends on where you play. Although I've found roulette to be best for me, in some casinos it's nearly impossible to beat roulette. This could be for reasons like the casino only has one wheel, and it's notoriously difficult to beat. But the same casino might use poor procedures that makes blackjack card counting a more viable option. Or perhaps there may be a large group of inexperienced, drunk and wealthy poker players in the casino at the time. Then if you're a seasoned player, then poker might be the most profitable option for you (at least on that day).

Hopefully now you're thinking more outside the box. The best advantage players quickly recognize and exploit opportunities as they present themselves. The more you learn about the weaknesses of games, the easier it is for you to recognize good or bad conditions. Then when good conditions are found, you can adapt yourself for more productive play.
 
Last edited:

June

New Member
#2
I have always changed my game to fit the circumstances. Sometimes there are winners in different games than I am really used to playing but watching for a while will usually get me up to speed. Eventually, you will win a few and lose a few unless you are a real pro!
 

PaybackTime

The perfect gambling game.
#3
No matter what your favorite game is, all gambling games are essentially odds vs payout. Forget about what determines whether you win or lose, and look at gambling from a mathematical perspective alone. Let's compare roulette and sports betting. On a European roulette wheel, there are 37 pockets and the payout for a single number win is 35-1. In this case, the odds of winning (assuming the wheel is random) are 1 in 37. But for a win, you are paid 35 chips (plus your original bet). This is easy to understand even for amateurs.

Now say you bet on a sports team to win, and they were a long-shot at 15-1. Most sports gamblers would call this the "odds", but it's not. The 15-1 is the payout. So what are the odds then? Nobody really knows. Bookies usually change the payouts depending on what gamblers bet, so the bookie will never lose. The bookie couldn't care less who wins or loses. The odds in this example are simply the chance of a particular team winning. One gambler might thing the "long-shot team" has a 1 in 10 chance of winning. Another gambler might think there's a 1 in 20 chance. And yet another gambler might see that the "long-shot" team had lost it's previous few games because of critical missing injured players, that will return for the next game. And this gambler may estimate the long-shot has a realistic 1 in 5 chance of winning its next game. They will then recognize the large difference between the odds of 1 in 5, and the payout of 15 to 1.

In sports betting, this is a "value bet". But I'm just using it as an example to illustrate the difference between odds and payout.

My favorite game is by far roulette. I prefer it because I find it by far the most profitable casino game (in the right conditions). Many people might disagree with me, but remember I said "in the right conditions". Although I wont get into that in this post. Even if it wasn't necessarily the most profitable casino game, I would likely still prefer it. This is because my motivations are not solely profit. In fact if I only aimed to profit, I probably wouldn't focus on advantage play because there are easier ways to make money. Sure you can earn large sums very quickly in the right conditions, but it's still work.

But let's assume your intention is solely profit. In such a case, you need to put ego, fun and personal preference aside. Then focus on which games will give you the highest payout with the best odds. Or more specifically, you need the biggest discrepancy between odds and payouts. Put another way, you're looking for the "best value bet".

So what's the best value bet?

What's the best casino game to play?

The reality is it depends on where you play. Although I've found roulette to be best for me, in some casinos it's nearly impossible to beat roulette. This could be for reasons like the casino only has one wheel, and it's notoriously difficult to beat. But the same casino might use poor procedures that makes blackjack card counting a more viable option. Or perhaps there may be a large group of inexperienced, drunk and wealthy poker players in the casino at the time. Then if you're a seasoned player, then poker might be the most profitable option for you (at least on that day).

Hopefully now you're thinking more outside the box. The best advantage players quickly recognize and exploit opportunities as they present themselves. The more you learn about the weaknesses of games, the easier it is for you to recognize good or bad conditions. Then when good conditions are found, you can adapt yourself for more productive play.






Don't you think all the gambling games that we have now are made so us the people loose, eventually?
 

PaybackTime

The perfect gambling game.
#5
Payback Time, the gambling game can promice more winners than any other gambling game. What do you think about a people powered gambling game. One without no house, no dealers, no rigged mechanics. Just luck as best as we can reproduce it. I'm trying to get some legal advice for it, once I have the ok I will post a video explaining what this game can do.

Peace
 

PaybackTime

The perfect gambling game.
#7
People powered gambling game = the only gambling game created so the people are the only winners. Do you agree with me that every other gambling game wants our money for themselves while they make it hard for us to win?
 
#8
Sounds like you're talking about poker at home. One problem with unregulated gambling is there's no central point to ensure fair random games. This is good in general, except professional players can still be banned.

Would a government give a license for what you mean? No, because they expect their cut too.
 

PaybackTime

The perfect gambling game.
#9
Steve, thank you for the interest you've shown. The government can kiss our ass. We will pay taxes like any other gambling game. Do you have the knowledge to classify a gambling game and to tell me what license I need to make this happen?

You didn't answer my question tough, do you agree that every gambling game that we have makes it hard for the people to be the winners?
Have a great day. Thanks alot
 
#10
Yes but it doesn't mean they can't be beaten
Ok so mathmatically we know that if the odds of hitting a bonus on a slot machine are 1 in 60 then it is the same odds every spin there is no such thing as a machine being due..but what if using that example i watch a machine go thru 60 or more spins and not give bonus n realize the machine is running against odds..does that somehow make it a better chance to sit down at that machine n hit a bonus within the next few spins?
 
#11
In other words wouldnt this be using a different set of probability, not the odds of it happening as 1 out of all possible combos, but a 'seperate" equation that the rng will eventually hit that combo soon, kind of like "Trusting in math for a better chance to time a machines payout to even out the odds back to normal"?
 
#12
Also i would like someone to clarify this..if a machines payback is say 97.4 percent then that means in the long run you should get back $97.40 out of every $100 played through on avg. But is that based on money invested into the machine by all players not just the time u sat down at it, or is that based on odds n probability of all possible rng reel combos. When a player raises his bets up and down from 75 cents to 1.50 to 3.00 n all over the place...n then the combo hits within the mathmatical probability..i mean yes it all still goes toghether in the long run but..what is that payback percentage based on..money fed into machine or number of spins??
 
#13
Also i would like someone to clarify this..if a machines payback is say 97.4 percent then that means in the long run you should get back $97.40 out of every $100 played through on avg. But is that based on money invested into the machine by all players not just the time u sat down at it, or is that based on odds n probability of all possible rng reel combos. When a player raises his bets up and down from 75 cents to 1.50 to 3.00 n all over the place...n then the combo hits within the mathmatical probability..i mean yes it all still goes toghether in the long run but..what is that payback percentage based on..money fed into machine or number of spins??
 
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