Craps Seven on Dice Road

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Seven on Dice Road

In any game using two dice, the number Seven plays a huge role.  Backgammon, Parcheesi, Monopoly, and Craps are played best by those who understand and apply the very high likelihood that the number Seven will frequently appear.  Frequency of appearance can be understood in both theory and experience, and I recommend both.  By theory, […]<img alt="" border="0" src="https://pixel.wp.com/b.gif?host=crapsalchemist.wordpress.com&blog=15843882&post=7&subd=crapsalchemist&ref=&feed=1" width="1" height="1" />
				<p>In any game using two dice, the number Seven plays a huge role.   Backgammon, Parcheesi, Monopoly, and Craps are played best by those who  understand and apply the very high likelihood that the number Seven will  frequently appear.  Frequency of appearance can be understood in both  theory and experience, and I recommend both.  By theory, I mean the  branch of mathematics called probability.  By experience, I mean you personally rolling  the dice many times and recording for later analysis what those dice  showed.</p>
<p>Gaining deep appreciation for the significance of Seven is best  achieved in isolation.  In the context of playing games, the  nuances of the dice outcomes will be overwhelmed by their meaning.  Those nuances can and should be appreciated without  distractions.  Therefore, let’s set games aside for a while and just  consider dice.</p>
<p>An essential exercise is to actually roll two dice  and record the outcomes.  On lined paper,  record the sequence of outcomes by making one type of mark for Sevens and just one  other type of mark for everything else.  Because there are 36 possible  dice outcomes for each roll, for a good sample size you should record  some reasonably high multiple of that number.  360 rolls are the  minimum, and 720 rolls are just fine.  You want to have a good look at a sizable slice of Dice Road.  Please use quality paper so that  you can keep the results for a while.</p>
<p>You may find that using a computer game to  generate the dice outcomes  will be faster and easier than rolling two  physical dice.  Computer games have  random number generators that are  adequate for this  educational purpose.  You might try  <a href="http://www.wizardofodds.com/play/craps. " rel="nofollow">http://www.wizardofodds.com/play/craps. </a> Both methods  are just fine.</p>
<p>You will need to record the  actual sequence of outcomes rather than just the summary totals.  What we are examining is  far more than just the total number of Sevens that  were rolled.  We are also  deeply interested in the spacing of Sevens  along dice road.  For  example, your sequence might look like: ooooo7oooooooo7oooo7oo77oooooo7oo7oooooooooo7oo.</p>
<p>After  you have finished recording the sequence of Sevens and non-Sevens, use a  bright color highlighter to mark just the Sevens.  After the Sevens are  marked, hold the paper at arm’s length and look at the overall picture that  the dice have made.  I already know what you will see; I am the  Alchemist.  You will be looking at an undeniable representation of  chaos, but what is interesting is that chaos shows up as clusters.   You will have clusters of Sevens like bunches of  grapes, and you will have long stretches of dice road with no Sevens at  all.  Sevens will have appeared approximately one-sixth of the total rolls, which is their probability, but they will have done so   highly irregularly.  That is very important.</p>
<p>Save your results.  We’ll consider them again later.</p>
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Source: Seven on Dice Road