Coronavirus math

  • Thread starter Wizard of Vegas forums
  • Start date

Wizard of Vegas forums

To me at least part of the problem with controlling the spread of the virus in New York and in the rest of the country is that we missed the whole beginning of the outbreak. Everyone felt reassured that there were very few cases because there was no testing available. On March 1st, New York reported only one case of coronavirus, but looking at the 114 of new fatalities from the virus reported on 3/24, the actual number of people infected in New York on March 1st was actually quite a bit higher.
It takes on average 5 days from exposure to the virus to develop symptoms of being infected. If you become infected with the virus, the chance of you dying is between .5% and 1.0% and that will take place on average 19 days later. So for 114 people to die on March 24th from the virus, somewhere between 11,400 and 22,800 people were infected with the virus on March 1st in New York.
114/.005=22,800 114/.01=11,400
Is it possible that these numbers are close to the truth?

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