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Blackjack 15...

Lannya

New Member
Messages
25
I have a question that I'm sure has been asked a hundred times, but I would love some insight please. When you get 15, what do you often decide to do and why?
 

Stealth

Member
Messages
150
Basic Strategy, which is the absolute mathematically correct way to play every hand, says "Stand on dealer 2 thru 6, otherwise hit".

Why?....

With computer power available, blackjack simulators have been developed, run and analyzed for over 4 billion rounds at all levels of rules, number of decks, etc. The result of that work is Basic Strategy which, while it may look counter to what you want to intuitively believe, is the proven absolute best way to play any given hand.

Here is an example why. Splitting 8,8 when the dealer has a 10 or Ace seems suicidal. You are going to lose in the long run either way, split or not. But you will lose less if you split then if you hit. Losing less on a bad hand is winning!

Learn Basic Strategy is the best advice for all blackjack plays.
 
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edmond

New Member
Messages
77
They say that 15 is actually a weak hand. It's been said that those who would never hit this hand have the same chance of winning as those who who'd hit (about 22%). A player that stands seems to even have a higher chance of losing. What are your thoughts on this @Stealth?
 

Stealth

Member
Messages
150
Yes, 15 is a weak hand that you will lose in the long term.

IF "it has been said" was true then Basic Strategy would be different. The answer is exactly what I said in the earlier post.

Basic Strategy, which is the absolute mathematically correct way to play every hand, says "if your hand is a hard total of 15 then Stand on dealer 2 thru 6, otherwise hit".

I would admonish the use of conjectures to answer what is known and proven.
 

Lyken

New Member
Messages
20
I love how you explain it, Stealth. I also prefer to have proven strategies rather than just conjecture from others who are also trying to find the best way to play blackjack.
 

Orton

New Member
Messages
75
I'm guessing this is more of an individual thing. I read an article some time back that had a totally different view than the one expressed here, but the author also seemed to have data to back up his claims. Can this mean that sometimes it's better to go with your instinct rather than statistics?
 

Kameron

New Member
Messages
20
15 is indeed known to be a weak hand; however, you may call me crazy, but I often kind of go with my gut feeling. Of course, that depends on the situation and the amount at stake.
 

QueenOfHearts

New Member
Messages
80
You know Stealth, data isn't the be all and end all, is it? Maybe I'm just an amateur here, but I do trade forex online and I do deal with a lot of quantitative data and what I've noticed is that blindly following statistics isn't always a guarantee that you will win in the end.
 

Stealth

Member
Messages
150
You know Stealth, data isn't the be all and end all, is it? Maybe I'm just an amateur here, but I do trade forex online and I do deal with a lot of quantitative data and what I've noticed is that blindly following statistics isn't always a guarantee that you will win in the end.


Likewise I trade online. Couldn't agree more but you better be grounded in the data or you are just gambling.

For example, if you are the best card counting blackjack player in the world you can not win if the casino has kicked you and all your data out.

It is my opinion that beating casinos is about 25% technical and 75% knowing how to get away with it. Very few questions about that.

With that being said, making hand playing decisions based on anything other than the "data" is reckless and foolish.
 
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